Focus Changes

Altering course:

    In the beginning of this blog, I stated that I was going to do this hard mode.  NPC stations in high sec and no real outside help.  Well that was a fun exercise. Next?

    Just a note:  I have been up for greater than 24 hours at this point, so the stream of thought is tending to sputter more than it should.

POSsibilities:

    I went ahead and dropped a POS in a quiet 0.5 system last week.  I got it all setup and moved most of my production there.  It's more expensive to have Red Frog ship out to me now, and I still have to cover an additional 2 jumps to get it into my POS.  I need to train a character into an Orca to make these last couple of jumps in as few trips as possible.   I still have a couple of copy jobs etc. hanging around my old home.

   So now I have all this possibility.  I am training up a component builder/BPO researcher for my own library and to support my invention toons.  This takes advantage of the ME/PE research slots I get for free, and allows me to increase profit margins without reducing ISK/hr of my inventors.

    I have thought about a lot.  I thought about buying all the parts that I would need to start building Orcas.  But with an initial buy-in of 10-12 billion and profit under 10% for a very well researched BPO, it just didn't seem worth while to me.

    All of these possibilities have left me needing better tools.  I find myself spending more time writing tools than playing most nights anymore.

    I also need to find more time to spend in Faction Warfare with my main.  Until I have a steady income with minimal work, I am not seeing a lot of time for it though.

Tool Development:

Overview:

    While the main focus of this blog is not on my tools, they are part of my decision making process.  I have chosen to write these tools in Java for several reasons.

• Cross-platform:
• Java is "natively" a cross-platform language.
• I needed/wanted to learn it for work:
• I work as a sometimes programmer, and was looking to write a cross-platform data extraction/analysis tool.
• I wanted a language with better libraries than Perl or C/C++.
• Perl libraries tend to be a little more unpolished and hap hazard.
• C/C++ support for things like XML and JSON, in the freeware department, Are lacking or non existent.
• Yes I will take flack for this, but after working on a project and compiling all the libraries using mingw through a cygwin terminal (for unix like commands needed by the make files) and realizing that cygwin adds a dll dependancy to your executables.
• Free tools, like Window Builder.

    I started with a simple tool to do invention calculations and spit out shopping lists, has turned into an interlocked toolkit, that just keeps growing.

Rapid Assembly:

    This was my initial tool idea, but a lot more complex.  Lots of options here, but when you boil them all down, the only tool currently with a GUI is my shopping list editor. Lots of options to dial in manufacturing and invention costs.  Has some functions to make historical and other graphs.

   One of the issues using this tool is that the database holding its blueprint information only holds the current SDE release, so you can not automatically see the cost of change of materials.

Profiteer:

    Command line tool to generate statistical information for T1 manufacturing over a period of time.  Output is in the form of csv's with product name/date.

    Groups blueprints by general market groups.  Can be used to filter down the list to a single market group.  Depth of the market group into tree does not matter (i.e. both Ammo & Charges and Cruise Missiles are valid.)

Invention Profiteer:

    Much like Profiteer, but adds in all the variations of the invention process.  It cycles through all available decryptors and meta items for each T2 blueprint in the selected market group.  I need to find some better ways of estimating true velocity.  I tried entering the Large Remote Energy Transfer Array II market, and am still holding onto ~300-500 M stock in sales orders.  On paper, this product looked very good, but the velocity is turning out to be very low.

killPuller:

    This is an attempt to pull kill data from zkillboard.com.  All of the kill data, along with some related price information is stuffed into a giant database.  From the database I plan to get item destroyed data to help with making market decisions.

killAnalyzer:

    This is a tool that I have not yet started working on.  I will need to finish killPuller enough to reliably extracts the large dataset for me before I can start working on this.  This will be the second GUI tool.

    Below is a list of desired functionality:

• ALOD finder.
• Battle finder / reporter.
• Should be able to search the kill data and find large battles.
• Should be able to create different battle reports.
• A per side isk lost over time graph, to give an idea how the battle progressed.
• Summary statistics
• Damage done
• Damage taken
• Kills
• Losses
• Item statistics
• Isk lost (destroyed)
• Isk salvageable (dropped)
• Galaxy Map graphs of various statistics
• Items destroyed
• Kills
• Pod Kills
• Gate camps

Industrial Accountant:

    I need to design a smart application to read in API data to find actual buy/sell prices on a unit by unit basis.

• Trace the material from purchase through industry jobs and finally into the sell orders.
• Categorize other purchases, both automagically and manually.
• Ability to graph data in various was

Conclusion:

    I need to get busy :).  Faction warfare, industrial warfare, and programming.  Lots to do, lets see if I can find the time to do much of this.

Free Minerals...

Nothing in life is free:

   All I can do is shake my head and move on when I see stuff like this:  A Free Tax Cut Recruitment post.  But looking at the market, and the profitability of certain products, especially T1, its obvious how hard people like the above corp are driving the market.

Armageddon:

   Lets look at a specific example of this failure.  Armageddons are selling for 111M isk.  Manufacturing cost is 183M isk.  Looks like market volume is ~100 hulls/day.  All prices/volumes are in Jita using ME 0, PE 0.  That means that you are losing ~72M isk / hull.  A single manufacturer can make ~6 hulls per day.  That is nearly half a billion isk/day lost, or ~18M isk/hr.

    Looking at the above ME chart, anything less than 178M is selling for a loss, and anything less than 228.75M (20% profit) is not very interesting to a manufacturer.

But mined minerals are free:

   This is the greatest failure to understand the market that is prevalent in Eve.  And its not just a miner problem either.  I have heard of logistics directors thinking that moon goo from their POS's that they but into T2 Ships are free.  This is simply not true.  There is no argument, it's just fact.  Whether it's an opportunity cost or the cost of your time, it must all end up in the final equations.

The cost of Free Minerals:

    I was debugging Profiteer earlier today because I could not believe that battleships were losing this much money at the volumes they are moving at.  I will post the isk / hour lost on each of these hulls.  The fact that so many people are losing so much money so quickly is absolutely mind boggling.

Apocalypse Blueprint	(1,852,503.52)
Maelstrom Blueprint	(1,961,225.25)
Raven Blueprint	(2,153,650.45)
Megathron Blueprint	(2,403,525.04)
Abaddon Blueprint	(2,717,849.96)
Cyclone Blueprint	(3,008,283.76)
Scorpion Blueprint	(3,250,852.11)
Ferox Blueprint	(3,632,733.71)
Typhoon Blueprint	(4,361,057.27)
Rokh Blueprint	(5,310,852.18)
Procurer Blueprint	(5,665,502.72)
Dominix Blueprint	(6,364,175.96)
Armageddon Blueprint	(17,770,671.87)

Conclusions:

    There needs to be some kind of education program to keep people from failing as hard as they are.  But, this is Eve, and space is harsh.  I have been lucky to work with Lockefox and have some serious and deep discussions on the realities and maths involved with running a successful industry program.  In a few short months, I was able to start making multiple billions in sales per month.  I was lucky enough to have a mentor who could guide me past the pitfalls of Eve Industry.

   Another co-worker who mainly missions/rats in null expressed interest in Industry in Eve, and the advice that I gave him I would suggest for any aspiring Industrialist who does not have a mentor, Don't do it.  There are a lot of ways to make money in Eve.  High level industry is a form of PvP all its own.  Just like market trading is a form of PvP.  And while PvPers judge themselves by kill board stats and isk values, Industrialists do it with kit buy-ins and profit margins.

    I would like to see T1 industry be a viable thing, and in niche markets, those with higher skill requirements, or that use non-minable materials, there still is some good profit, sometimes exceeding what can be made in T2.  One of the big problems with that is that you have to be agile in what you make as you can easily exceed demand with the amount you can produce.

TL;DR

   Nothing is free.  If you don't have a mentor, don't do industry.